What do you know, we had another wild week in the NFL (and daily fantasy football)! Kansas City and Tampa Bay each lost, Denver and Carolina continued their undefeated starts, and Jason Tucker extended the record for longest field goal of all time to 66 yards. We’re two sentences in, and I’m already sweating! Let’s keep the madness going and jump into Week 4 of our DFS values and sleeper picks!
If you’re a fan of DFS, or you just like to find an edge or angle with all your football-related bets, this column will be up your alley all season. Each week, I scour the player pools on DraftKings and FanDuel, and compile a list of sleepers and/or value picks to help you win some cold, hard cash. The more value players you add, the more money you will have left for proven weekly studs at other roster spots.
If you read this column ahead of Week 3, you would have benefited from our advice to plug a plethora of low-cost, high-value players into your DFS lineups. Here’s a short list of some of our hits from last week, including each player’s DraftKings cost and final PPR output:
- Daniel Jones ($5,800): 16.54 fantasy points
- Chase Edmonds ($5,700): 14.5
- Mike Davis ($5,200): 11
- Cardinals D/ST ($3,000): 17
If you drafted any of these cost-efficient selections last week, you would have benefited from good, cheap production and afforded yourself an extra stud or two elsewhere. Getting the most bang for your buck has always been the name of the game in DFS, so it’s important to do your due diligence before constructing lineups. Leave the deep-diving to us — we’re here for you from the first kickoff through the last play of the 2021 NFL season.
Without further ado, let’s jump right into Week 4!
All player values are from DraftKings and FanDuel. All stats are from NFL.com and Pro Football Reference.
NFL DFS Picks Week 4: QB sleepers, values for DraftKings, FanDuel
Aaron Rodgers, Packers vs. Steelers (DK: $6,800 | FD: $7,600)
Of course, Rodgers will never be considered a “sleeper” for the rest of his life, but he certainly looks like a value at $6,800. The Steelers have not looked right from top to bottom this season — Big Ben is over the hill, top receiver Diontae Johnson (knee) is hurt, and rookie Najee Harris has too much on his plate. The biggest concern for Steelers Nation? Their defense has been terrible. A-Rod has been torching opponents in prime time in the two weeks since his abominable season-opener against the Saints. Look out below, Pittsburgh fans, you’re about to get Lambeaued by the fifth-best QB of all time. At QB, I’d rather spend $6,800 on guaranteed production in the 20s than throw up a prayer for double-digits at $5,500.
Teddy Bridgewater, Broncos vs. Ravens (DK price: $5,700 | FD: $6,800)
Bridgewater has become a favorite of this column, as he remains efficient and has Denver playing inspired (and undefeated) football. Now, he didn’t find anyone in the end zone in the Broncos’ win over the Jets last week, but that’s mostly because game script didn’t call for it. The Jets waved the white flag early in Mile High, and Denver’s running back tandem ran to their hearts’ content. (Seriously, I have no idea where these friggin’ idioms come from). Well, Teddy B added 235 yards to his banner year, and he’s still yet to throw an interception (knock on wood if you’re with me). Game script should dictate a bit of an air show against Baltimore, which will pack a much bigger punch than any of Denver’s first three opponents this season. I don’t think Bridgewater will have a highlight-reel day, but I do think he puts up 18-plus points. At $5,700, that’s a floor you should be willing to accept.
Matt Ryan, Falcons vs. WFT (DK: $5,000 | FD: $6,700)
If not now, then when? Matty Ice draws a Washington defense that has been extremely underwhelming following its 2020 run as the fourth-best scoring defense. Buffalo QB Josh Allen had a get-right game against WFT last week, throwing for 358 yards and four touchdowns. Now, it’s Ryan’s time to shine. Ron Rivera’s squad is reeling, even more so than the 1-2 Falcons. Ryan hasn’t even been that bad — the 2016 MVP has exceeded 75-percent completion rates his past two games, has a 300-yard outing and two multi-TD games, and his QB rating was 111.2 in Atlanta’s win over a feisty Giants defense last week. Pile onto DC’s misery, Matty.
NFL DFS Picks Week 4: RB sleepers, values for DraftKings, FanDuel
Jonathan Taylor, Colts at Dolphins (DK: $6,300 | FD: $6,600)
Here’s another guy who doesn’t qualify as a sleeper, but he absolutely qualifies as a value. JT has not exactly brought sexy back this season, as he’s failed to reach 65 yards rushing in a game, and he’s yet to break the plane on the ground or through the air. His QB, Carson Wentz, has been dealing with two bum ankles and an o-line that seemingly endures more injuries each week. For these reasons, the second-year back’s weekly cost on DraftKings has dropped from $8K to $7,200 to $6,700 and now $6,300. There are plenty of reasons for optimism if you’re a Taylor truther, though, and there’s plenty of upside at these prices. For starters, I traded him away in my main fantasy league, so he’s a lock to explode almost immediately. Also, Miami has struggled to contain the run, ranking 27th against backs in PPR formats. Lastly, I expect a bunch of dump-offs, draws, and screens this week. With Wentz not at 100 percent and offensive tackle Quenton Nelson assuredly out with an ankle injury of his own, what else does Indy have? Second-year receiver Michael Pittman is good, but Wentz missed him wide open multiple times last week. T.Y. Hilton is likely still out with a neck injury. I’m not worried about Nyheim Hynes — Taylor’s the man, and he might just go off this week.
Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team at Falcons (DK: $6,100 | FD: $7,100)
Here’s another one of my “ride-or-die” guys. Gibson has massive talent and a ceiling big enough to contain the Rockefeller Center Christmas tree, but WFT’s roster has crumbled around him since QB Ryan Fitzpatrick’s unfortunate Week 1 hip injury. But the show must go on for the second-year back, and his explosiveness makes him well worth a $6,100 investment against a perennial dumpster fire of a defense like Atlanta. Gibson got bottled up on the ground against a motivated Bills squad last week, but he took a screen pass 73 yards to the house to make up for it. Gibson continues to improve as an NFL runner — he’s still only a few years removed from playing wide receiver — and he’s a buy-low guy in just about every format imaginable. (I’d probably trade my mother-in-law’s Prius for him in my dynasty league. It would be worth the tension.)
Zack Moss, Bills vs. Texans (DK: $5,300 | FD: $6,000)
Just like last year, Bills head coach Sean McDermott and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll seem to be realizing that Moss is a better running back than Devin Singletary. Luckily for DFS participants, Buffalo’s shift in backfield workloads last week has not coincided with a major hike in Moss’s costs. The second-year back rushed 13 times for 60 yards against WFT, and he caught all three of his targets for 31 yards and a touchdown. Now he gets to help beat up on the lowly Texans, who have allowed eight rushing scores in three games (second most in the NFL) and 273 yards on the ground over the past two weeks. Gather that Moss.
NFL DFS Picks Week 4: WR sleepers, values for DraftKings, FanDuel
Courtland Sutton, Broncos (DK: $5,700 | FD: $6,300) and Marquise Brown, Ravens (DK: $5,400 | FD: $6,400)
I doubled up here, as the Broncos host the Ravens in what should be a high-scoring affair. Sutton had an explosive Week 2 (catching 9-of-12 targets for 159 yards), but game script brought him back to Earth in Denver’s Week 3 laugher at home over the Jets. Well, the Ravens bring much more offensive competition into town, but their secondary has more holes than usual. Baltimore ranks 26th in points allowed and, unbelievably, 30th in passing yards surrendered. With Sutton playing so efficiently (75-percent catch rate) and garnering 20-25 percent of Teddy B’s targets, he’s a great start in a game projected at 45 total points.
On the other side, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown remains the top downfield threat for the Ravens. Denver’s D has been surprisingly good this season, but it hasn’t faced anybody with the speed or playmaking ability of Hollywood. Through three weeks, Brown has 15 catches on 23 targets, 235 yards, and two scores. He has averaged 15.7 yards per catch and 78.3 receiving yards per game, and he sees the field for nearly 70 percent of Baltimore’s offensive snaps. Big things will be poppin’ for these two young receivers Sunday.
Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers vs. Seahawks (DK: $5,000 | FD: $5,700)
Don’t look now, but Aiyuk is back. Side note: why do we say “don’t look now” when we want someone’s attention? Shouldn’t it be “look out now,” instead? I’m going with that from now on. Look out now, readers, Aiyuk is back! After lulling his fantasy owners to sleep in Weeks 1 and 2 with one catch on two total targets and an offensive snap percentage just a hair over 50 percent, Aiyuk came alive on Sunday Night Football against Green Bay. The second-year wideout had four catches on six targets for 37 yards and a TD, and most important, he saw the field for 86 percent of San Francisco’s offensive plays. I knew Aiyuk would explode onto the scene this weekend after I traded him away in two different fantasy leagues. Reverse jinxer, for the win! The Seahawks remain one of the more generous defenses to wide receivers in fantasy.
A.J. Green, Cardinals at Jaguars (DK: $4,500 | FD: $5,600)
Quick, everyone, grab Green before DraftKings and FanDuel realize he’s good again! Early-season MVP candidate Kyler Murray looked Green’s way six times over the weekend, and the seven-time Pro Bowler pulled in five catches for 112 yards. With DeAndre Hopkins (ribs) banged up and rookie Rondale Moore more of an occasional home run hitter, Green should continue to see a stead workload. With Hopkins likely drawing coverage from Jalen Ramsey — and the books listing the over/under for this one at 54.5 (with an implied total of 24 points for Arizona) — Green at $4,500 feels like a no-brainer.
NFL DFS Picks Week 4: TE sleepers, values for DraftKings, FanDuel
Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team at Falcons (DK: $4,900 | FD: $5,800)
I’m bullish on my favorite tight ends like I’m bullish on my favorite penny stocks. This is the week, fellow Tom-boys! Not much has gone WFT’s way this season, but at least Taylor Heinicke seems to be developing chemistry with Thomas. Heinicke looked his tight end’s way four times in Week 3, leading to 42 yards and a score in Washington’s 43-21 drubbing at the hands of Buffalo. This weekend’s tilt in Atlanta should similarly yield a bunch of points, so fire up LT82 at these modest costs without hesitation. The Falcons rank 27th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Pat Freiermuth, Steelers at Packers (DK: $3,100 | FD: $5,000)
Do you believe in the power of the ‘Muth? The Penn State product’s strong play has effectively dismissed Eric Ebron from Pittsburgh’s offense, and yet the rookie can be drafted for $200 less than the veteran on DraftKings. How? Freiermuth grabbed three of his five targets last week, one of which landed him in the end zone. Ebron caught none of his three targets. Case closed. Even better, Ben Roethlisberger’s struggles to throw the deep ball play right into the young tight end’s hands. Everybody will be smash-playing rookie Najee Harris after his redonkulous 19 targets against Cincy last week (Harris caught 14 for 102, of course, because I traded him last week). I have a sneaking suspicion Green Bay will monitor Harris better, possibly freeing up the ‘Muth-man. Only one team has surrendered more fantasy points to the tight end position than the Packers. To my two PSU cousins: Please do not tell Mr. Freiermuth about this column.
NFL DFS Picks Week 4: D/ST sleepers, values for DraftKings, FanDuel
Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins (DK: $2,700 | FD: $4,600)
After a terrific 2020 campaign, the Colts defense sat near the top of many fantasy analysts’ sleepers lists this preseason. They have started off 2021 in disappointing fashion, with just 22 fantasy points through three weeks. Fret not, Indy owners, you’re going to South Beach this week! The Dolphins offense under Jacoby Brisset yields much more opportunity for defensive points than the Colts’ previous three opponents (Seahawks, Rams, and Titans). Give me Indy’s D/ST on the cheap.